At the 2015 United Nations international climate change conference in Paris (COP21), 195 countries agreed to limit global warming to well below 2ºC and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5ºC. In advance, the participating countries submitted plans to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions – the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). Every five years these plans will be updated with the first update due in 2018.

A number of studies1 have shown current INDCs will not limit global warming to well below 2ºC. f fully implemented, they will set the average global temperature on a path to rise between 2.2°C and 3.4°C by 21002. By 2030, emissions will need to be about 30% below those resulting from current INDCs to achieve the “well below 2°C” objective.


INDCs of 17 countries representing 78% of global energy-related emissions


The Energy Transitions Commission (ETC) tasked Ecofys to analyze the INDCs of 16 countries and one region (the EU-28), which accounted for 78% of global energy-related CO2 emissions in 2013. These INDCs cover both developed and developing countries. This report presents the main findings and their implications for energy decision makers.

Read more in the Pathway from Paris Report.