The Chilling Prospects 2022 Climate Special analysis takes a deep dive into the multi-faceted risks faced by populations with estimated medium and low access to cooling risk in 2030. It unpacks the potential magnitude of appliances that households at risk could own if supplied with adequate electricity services. It estimates the potential implications of higher access to sustainable cooling by these populations for the progress of high-impact countries towards SDG7 and 1.5 C degree pathways. 

The findings highlight the importance of placing policies for access to energy-efficient and sustainable cooling at the core of efforts to achieve SDG7.3. At the same time, it shows how a combination of sustainable cooling solutions and the decarbonization of electricity supply can mitigate the growth in cooling-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and drive progress towards SDG7.2, including in rural areas.

They include: 

Key finding 1: Inefficient refrigerators, freezers and air conditioners (AC) remain too energy-intensive for millions of low-income households at risk. Efficiency standards (MEPS) could make 1.07 billion appliances compatible with the electricity services of those households, including +40 percent refrigerators-freezers and +16 percent AC units compared to business-as-usual (BAU). Read more 

Key finding 2: In 2030, with a BAU efficiency and electricity mix, the adoption of all compatible cooling appliances could result in over 125 MTCO2 of indirect annual emissions. Combining energy efficiency standards for appliances and buildings with the decarbonization of electricity supply can reduce indirect emissions by 40 percent while expanding the compatibility of cooling appliances by 16 percent. Read more

Key finding 3: Meeting cooling needs with efficient technologies mitigates the increase in energy demand. Under BAU efficiency, adoption of compatible cooling appliances in households at medium and low access to cooling risk could require over 240 TWh of annual electricity demand in high-impact countries in 2030. Read more

Key finding 4: In rural settings, integration of energy access planning with access to cooling is highly relevant for delivering energy services, including healthcare and agriculture. Efficient appliances, particularly refrigerators, can help stimulate rural electricity demand and thereby help strengthen the business case for renewable electrification. Read more

ACMI announced a bold ambition for the continent—to reach 300 million credits produced annually by 2030. This level of production would unlock 6 billion in income and support 30 million jobs. By 2050, ACMI is targeting over 1.5 billion credits produced annually in Africa, leveraging over $120 billion and supporting over 110 million jobs. Commenting on ACMI’s ambition, Damilola Ogunbiyi, the CEO of SEforALL and Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Sustainable Energy for All and Co-Chair of UN-Energy, and a member of the ACMI’s steering committee, said, “The current scale of financing available for Africa’s energy transition is nowhere close to what is required. Achieving the Africa Carbon Markets Initiative targets will provide much-needed financing that will be transformative for the continent.” 

“I appreciate African Carbon Markets Initiative (ACMI) recognition of the tremendous potential for governments and the private sector to work together to catalyze private capital to accelerate clean energy transitions in Africa — which I believe can be done credibly, transparently, and in line with science.” John Kerry, US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate

Crucially, ACMI is committed to supporting high-integrity credits where an equitable and transparent distribution of revenue goes to communities. ACMI steering committee member and USAID Chief Climate Officer Gillian Caldwell noted, “The African voluntary carbon market will only succeed if people trust that African credits are driving real climate action and having a positive human impact. As the VCM scales in Africa, USAID and ACMI will ensure that it does so with integrity as a core pillar.” To stimulate the production of high-integrity credits, the ACMI is collaborating with global integrity initiatives like the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (IC-VCM) and the Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative (VCMI), as well as other regional carbon market platforms. 

US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry said, “I appreciate African Carbon Markets Initiative (ACMI) recognition of the tremendous potential for governments and the private sector to work together to catalyze private capital to accelerate clean energy transitions in Africa — which I believe can be done credibly, transparently, and in line with science.” 

ACMI released Africa Carbon Markets Initiative, Roadmap report: Harnessing carbon markets for Africa at the initiative’s COP 27 launch event. The report identifies 13 action programs to support the growth of voluntary carbon markets (VCMs) on the continent. Although voluntary carbon markets are already growing quickly—retirements of African credits have grown by an average of 36% annually over the past five years—aggressive action will be required to maintain this level of growth over the coming decades. 

Multiple African nations including Kenya, Malawi, Gabon, Nigeria and Togo shared their commitment to collaborating with ACMI to scale carbon credit production via voluntary carbon market activation plans. Together, these 7 countries have a maximum potential to generate ~300+ MtCO2e. Even capturing 25% of this potential, ~75 MtCO2e would be double the total credits issued across the entire continent in 2021. Commenting on the announcement, Vice President of Nigeria and ACMI steering committee member H.E Yemi Osinbajo said, “Carbon markets can deliver tremendous benefits for Nigeria and for Africa—creating jobs, driving green investment, and reducing emissions. Nigeria is putting the groundwork in place today so that in subsequent years, carbon credits become a major industry that will benefit our people.” 

ACMI is also working with major carbon credit buyers and financiers, such as Exchange Trading Group, Nando’s, and Standard Chartered, to set up an advance market commitment for hundreds of millions of dollars for high-integrity African carbon credits. For example, mobilizing $500 million, at an average price of $10 per carbon credit, could support the development and delivery of at least 50 MtCO2e, which is equivalent to the total credits retired from Africa from 2010 through 2020. Following the lead of other ACMs in the space, ACMI intends to send a strong demand signal for carbon credits across all project types – especially those where Africa has untapped potential. These include nature-based solutions, renewable energy projects, cookstoves, and more. 

”Carbon markets can deliver tremendous benefits for Nigeria and for Africa—creating jobs, driving green investment, and reducing emissions. Nigeria is putting the groundwork in place today so that in subsequent years, carbon credits become a major industry that will benefit our people.” H.E Yemi Osinbajo, Vice President of Nigeria and ACMI steering committee member

The initiative intends to promote demand for existing credits, or those already in development, as well as for products and innovative project types that don’t yet have a market and can substantively contribute to economic prosperity, livelihoods, and environmental preservation across the continent (e.g., diesel decommissioning or biodiversity credits). 

Ivan Duque, former President of Colombia, and David Antonioli, CEO of Verra, announced the creation of a new consortium, the Nature Framework Development Group. This partnership across Conservation International, Verra, International Union for Conservation of Nature, Conservation Finance Alliance, The Biodiversity Consultancy, Great Barrier Reef Foundation, and Blue Nature Alliance with support from McKinsey & Company, aims to develop a market leading nature/biodiversity credit. President Duque, who made the announcement as a member of ACMI’s steering committee commented, “by creating nature/biodiversity credits, the consortium aims to unlock new flows of financing for the protection of biodiversity and critical ecosystems.” Bogolo Kenewendo, Africa Director for the UN Climate Change High Level Champions noted the importance of adequately valuing both carbon and other nature benefits, “To maximize the value of Africa’s ecosystems, it is essential that there is a fair price for carbon credits, as well as the ability to be paid for the additional nature benefits beyond carbon, such biodiversity and water.” 

ACMI aims to encourage conversation, coordination, and action towards the development of African voluntary carbon markets. Steering committee member and Vice President, Africa at the Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet Joseph Nganga called for everyone to contribute to this important effort: “Sustaining the rapid growth of African carbon markets isn’t going to happen accidently, it’s going to require action by governments, developers, and buyers. Together, we can unlock billions for climate finance and economic development in Africa.” 

Launched in October 2020, the UEF is a multi-donor facility that provides grants to eligible organizations once the connections they establish have been verified. Under this results-based model, companies are incentivized to build at speed and scale – in contrast to a traditional procurement model for financing energy projects.

In its initial wave, the UEF is supporting mini-grid development in Benin, Madagascar, and Sierra Leone. The initial 542 connections verified in Madagascar will provide approximately 2,170 people with electricity, while also powering important community services and businesses.

“We are thankful for this grant that will be instrumental in bringing productive electricity to villagers and trigger economic growth and positive social impacts in eight new villages across Madagascar,” said Romain de Villeneuve, CEO, WeLight Africa.

In the community of Ampasimatera, the new mini-grids are anticipated to provide new economic opportunities for local residents.

“Electricity alone cannot create all the conditions for economic growth, but it is an essential element to meet the needs of the population of Ampasimatera in order to facilitate the development of economic activities in the commune,” said Thyerry Rozenaly, Mayor of Ampasimatera.

More mini-grids supported by the UEF are under construction in the three countries, where the facility expects to provide results-based finance for approximately 14,000 electricity connections.

A new wave of the UEF was also launched on 24 August and focuses on supporting Stand-Alone Solar for Productive Use (SSPU), starting with Nigeria. This wave is designed to scale up access to electricity for households, micro, small and medium enterprises.

The UEF is a multi-donor facility supported by Shell Foundation, The Rockefeller Foundation, Africa Minigrid Developers Association, Power Africa, Good Energies, UKaid, Carbon Trust, IKEA Foundation, Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany (BMZ) and Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ).

View the UEF's complete impacts and results