SEforALL Analysis of SDG7 Progress - 2022
Utilizing the latest data from the Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2022, SEforALL has conducted a deep-dive analysis to provide a snapshot of the world’s current situation across the four targets of SDG7: electricity access (7.1.1), clean cooking access (7.1.2), renewable energy (7.2) and energy efficiency (7.3). This analysis builds on the Tracking SDG7 Report with an additional perspective on regions and high-impact countries.
We are lagging behind in providing access to electricity and clean cooking, and much more needs to be done to increase efficiency and renewable energy deployment.
1 Baseline for Target 7.3: Double Rate of Energy Efficiency Improvement is the value for the years 2006-2010
2 Annual rate of improvement from 2018–2019
3 Yearly rate of energy efficiency improvement required to meet 2030 target from 2020 to 2030
4 2030 projection by the IEA Stated Policies Scenario (STEP)
Electricity access is growing, but progress is uneven (7.1.1).
Lack of clean cooking will persist at a massive scale if the current pace of progress continues (7.1.2).
While the overall share of renewable energy has been increasing, more efforts are needed to increase modern renewables in Asia and Africa, including industry and transport sector (7.2).
Achieving the energy efficiency goal requires an energy intensity improvement rate of at least 3.2 percent per year from 2020 through to 2030 (7.3).
Access to electricity
Significant progress has been made since 2010 with the number of unelectrified people reducing from 1.15 billion to 733 million in 2020.
However, 97 percent of this improvement was driven by gains in Asia, particularly in India and Bangladesh (66 percent and 14 percent gains, respectively). Africa’s electricity access rate increased 8 percent, from 44 percent to 56 percent, in the decade. However, with significant population growth, the population without access to electricity actually increased by 5 million people.
Looking forward, based on current trends, we are not on track to achieve SDG 7.1.1 by 2030.
Projections show that we are not on track to achieve universal electricity access by 2030, with between 670 and 764 million people expected to remain unelectrified based on current trends.
We need much stronger action and investments to achieve universal access. The efforts to electrify countries that have large unelectrified populations and/or have not made significant progress in the past few years, such as Congo (DR), Ethiopia, Nigeria and Pakistan, need to be strengthened. Additionally, countries with slower progress and low electrification rates, including those with a smaller number of unelectrified populations, many of which are in Africa, need to have immediate actions based on sound strategies to leave no one behind.
There are currently 733 million people without access to electricity, 80 percent of them in Africa and 18 percent in Asia.
The following 23 countries make up 80 percent of the electrification challenge, with 19 of them in Africa and the remaining 4 in Asia.
Countries with largest populations without electricity access, millions, 2020
Total number of unelectrified people has declined from 1.15 billion in 2010 to ~733 million in 2020; however, most of this decline is from Asia while Africa saw an increase
Population without electricity access, millions, 2010-2020
Almost every Asian country has made progress since 2010
Reduction in unelectrified population between 2010 and 2020, millions
USD 32 billion was committed in 2019 for access to electricity in 20 high-impact countries
According to Energizing Finance: Understanding the Landscape 2021, less than one-third of finance commitments, or USD 12.9 billion, were for residential access. Eight countries received less than USD 100 million towards electricity access.
Access to clean cooking
There are currently 2.4 billion people without access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking with 55 percent of them in Asia and 39 percent in Africa
The number of people without access has been stagnant with only a slight improvement from 3 billion in 2010 to 2.4 billion in 2020. The global annual reduction rate of the population without clean cooking access since 2010 is only 2.1 percent.
Improvements have been made in Asia with the number without access declining from 2.1 billion to 1.3 billion people. However, the number of people without access in Africa has increased from ~770 million to ~940 million people.
Looking forward, based on current trends, we are not on track to achieve SDG 7.1.2 by 2030.
Projections show that we are not on track to achieve universal access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking by 2030 with between 1.9 and 2.1 billion people expected to remain without access based on current trends.
To address this, organizations should prioritize working with countries that have large populations without access and have not made significant progress to reduce them over the past few years such as Bangladesh, China, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria and Pakistan.
Much stronger public finance is needed, along with financial/fiscal incentives and strong political will to remove barriers and create the enabling environment for faster and larger-scale clean cooking roll-outs.
80 percent of the people without access live in just 23 countries, with 11 of them in Asia and the remaining 12 in Africa.
The situation is dire in the African countries, as only 4 of the 12 (Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria) that are part of the top 80 percent challenge countries have access rates over 10 percent.
The 11 Asian countries mostly have higher access rates than their African counterparts. However, their large population size means there is significant room for improvement.
23 countries make up 80 percent of the access to clean cooking challenge
Countries with largest populations without access to clean cooking, millions, 2020
While Asia made progress between 2010 and 2020, Africa have suffered declines by increasing the number of people without access
Reduction in population without access to clean cooking between 2010 and 2020, millions
5 Asian countries significantly improved their clean cooking access rates (>15p.p.) between 2010 and 2020: China, India, Indonesia, Myanmar and Vietnam.
No African top 80 percent challenge countries significantly improved its clean cooking access rate (>15p.p.) between 2010 and 2020. DR Congo, Nigeria and Ethiopia have increased the number of population without access significantly (> 15 million).
Share of renewables
The current share of renewables, including the use of traditional biomass, in total energy consumption, is 17.7 percent, while the current share of modern renewables in total energy consumption is only 11.5 percent.
Africa has the highest share of renewables in its total final energy consumption (TFEC) overall at 54.2 percent, but this only includes 7.6 percent of modern renewables.
North America and Europe has the least share of renewables in its TFEC at 13.1 percent but all are coming from modern renewables.
Looking back, we see that the share of modern renewables in the energy mix has only increased modestly from 8.7 percent in 2010 to 11.5 percent in 2019.
The share of all renewables, including traditional biomass, increased from 16.4 percent in 2010 to just 17.7 percent in 2019.
Looking forward, based on current trends, more needs be done to achieving a substantial increase in the share of renewables, in particular modern renewables, in the energy mix by 2030.
Projections show that the share of renewables in the energy mix is increasing to between 18 percent and 22 percent by 2030.
To ensure we get on track, we should increase both renewable electricity consumption and direct renewable usage in transport, industry and building sectors, while the unelectrified populations are being connected with clean and modern renewable energy.
Modern renewables need to be expanded much more quickly to reach the 7.2 target and reduce the negative impacts of using traditional biomass.
Today, the share of renewables in the energy consumption is 17.7 percent, 11.5 percent of which is modern renewables
Only 16.6 percent of energy consumption of the top 20 energy consuming countries are from renewables
Countries with the highest energy consumption and their share of renewables, 2019
It currently takes 4.7 MJ (megajoules) of energy to generate USD 1 of economic activity.
Africa is the least efficient region with 5.5 MJ/USD GDP, while Latin America & the Caribbean is the most efficient region with 3.3 MJ/USD GDP.
8 of the top 20 energy consuming countries are more efficient than the world average with the United Kingdom, Germany and Japan leading the way.
Looking back, we see that energy intensity has decreased from 5.6 MJ/$ GDP in 2010 to 4.7 MJ/$ GDP in 2019, corresponding to an average rate of improvement of 1.9 percent.
Looking forward, based on the current data, we will need an energy intensity improvement rate of at least 3.2 percent per year through 2030 to achieve SDG 7.3.
Data show a slowdown in the rate of improvement of energy intensity since 2015, thus reaching SDG 7.3 will require a higher improvement rate than the original rate of 2.6 percent.
To ensure we get on track, we will need to explore ways for industry and transport to increase its energy efficiency and consumers will need to be incentivized to be more energy efficient.
Energy intensity improvement rate of at least 3.2 percent annually will be needed to achieve SDG 7.3
Countries with the highest energy consumption and energy intensity
These 20 countries represent approximately 75 percent of total energy consumption in the world.
There has been a ~0.9 MJ/USD improvement in energy efficiency over the past 9 years and the average annual reduction rate is 1.9% with slower improvement in recent years
Energy Intensity (MJ/GDP 2017 PPP) 2010-2019 and Annual Intensity Reduction Rate (%)
Europe and Asia Pacific are leading energy-efficiency investment
For electricity, the high-impact countries (HICs) are: Angola, Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Chad, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, India, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Myanmar, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania.
For clean cooking, the high-impact countries (HICs) are: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, China, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Myanmar, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania, Vietnam.
SEforALL 2021. Energizing Finance: Understanding the Landscape