SEforALL Analysis of SDG7 Progress - 2023
Utilizing the latest data from the Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2023, SEforALL has conducted a deep-dive analysis to provide a snapshot of the world’s current situation across the four targets of SDG7: electricity access (7.1.1), clean cooking access (7.1.2), renewable energy (7.2) and energy efficiency (7.3). This analysis builds on the Tracking SDG7 Report with an additional perspective on regions and high-impact countries.
We are lagging behind in providing access to both electricity and clean cooking, and much more needs to be done for increasing efficiency and renewable energy consumption
SOURCES: World Bank / ESMAP; 2023 Tracking SDG7, IEA 2022 World Energy Outlook, SEforALL analysis
Overall progress
Electricity access is growing, but progress is uneven - Africa needs stronger action
The number of unelectrified people reduced from 1.14 billion in 2010 to 675 million in 2021.
Asia was the major driver of this decline, as the deficit there shrank from 516 million in 2010 to 69 million in 2021. Meanwhile, Africa saw only a marginal reduction of its unelectrified population, from 591 million to 586 million during the same period, influenced by its rapidly increasing population.
2021 saw the strongest annual improvement in electricity access (9.0 percentage points) since 2010 but it was mainly made in Asia. Africa needs accelerated electrification effforts.
Differences in rural and urban electrification persist and should be factored into tailored country strategies to achieve universal access by 2030.
Lack of clean cooking access will persist at a massive scale if the current pace of progress continues
2.3 billion people in 2021 - approximately a third of the world’s population - were still unable to cook cleanly and safely.
Considering expected population growth, the annual increase in the number of people gaining access to clean cooking in both Asia and Africa needs to be significantly accelerated. Sub-Saharan African countries require much stronger and focused actions.
Countries with large populations without electricity and clean cooking access overlap. Electric cooking could be an option for solving both access challenges.
Renewable energy potential should be pursued in both electrification and clean cooking and usage in industry, transport and building
A slow pace in renewable energy uptake has been observed, and has not changed in both renewable energy in general (renewable share in total final energy consumption went from 16.0% in 2010 to 19.1% in 2020) and modern renewables (8.7% in 2010 to 12.5% in 2020). While we should continue accelerating renewable electricity, the increase of renewables in heat and transport fuel energy consumptions, which are much larger than electricity consumption, is necessary with the uptake of modern renewables in industry, building and the transport sectors.
Energy efficiency improvement has slowed down
A continuing decline in the pace of progress on energy efficiency since 2015 has not changed, which makes the annual average improvement rate between 2010 and 2020 only 1.8%, far from the originally targeted 2.6%. The 2020 annual improvement rate was a mere 0.4%. This has made achieving the SDG 7.3 target very difficult.
Both Africa and Asia have higher energy intensity than the world average and require a stronger focus for improvement, especially since economic development in these regions is expected to continue. Focus on countries in the top 20 energy-consuming countries with higher energy intensity and/or low improvement rate will be effective as well.
Based on current trends, we are not on track to achieve SDG 7.1.1 by 2030
We are not on track to achieve universal electricity access by 2030, with approximately 660 to 674 million people expected to remain unelectrified in 2030 based on a projection with the current trend and stated policy package scenario.
Efforts to electrify countries with large unelectrified populations, low electrification rates, and/or without significant progress in the past few years need to be strengthened. Additionally, countries with smaller numbers of unelectrified populations but low electrification rates also need immediate actions based on sound strategies to leave no one behind. As Asia is moving toward higher electrification rates, the strongest policy and investment focus needs to be on Sub-Saharan Africa.
Based on current trends, we are not on track to achieve SDG 7.1.2 by 2030
Projections show that we are not on track to achieve universal access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking by 2030, with approximately 1.8 and 1.9 billion people expected to remain without clean cooking access based on current trends.
Countries with large populations without access, such as India, China, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Ethiopia, should be a priority for stronger actions, while countries with low access rates with very weak improvement, many in Africa, also need to be prioritized.
Based on current trends, we expect to see only moderate gains in the share of renewables and that of modern renewable in the energy mix by 2030.
Projections show an increase in the share of renewables, including traditional biomass, in energy consumption to around 23% by 2030.
Africa has the highest share of renewables at 57.1%, with only 8.4% of modern renewables. Africa has the lowest improvement rate (0.6 percentage point) of renewable share in total final energy consumption since 2010. Populations without electricity and clean cooking access in the region should be connected with clean and modern renewable energy.
Based on recent data, an energy intensity improvement rate of at least 3.4 percent per year from now through to 2030 will be necessary to achieve SDG 7.3
With the continuous slowdown in the rate of improvement of energy intensity, reaching SDG 7.3 becomes harder and harder.
To ensure we get on track, all end-use sectors (industry, transport and building) need to become more energy efficient. As economic structures are quite diverse from one country to another, in-depth data and analysis of sector specific energy intensity is critical to create sound strategies for each country.
Access to electricity
Since 2010, the number of unelectrified people reduced from 1,141 million to 675 million in 2021. As Asia has made significant progress, Africa is becoming the sole region with the majority (87%) of the world's unelectrified population.
80% of the unconnected people live in just 24 countries (20 of them in Africa and the remaining 4 in Asia).
96% of the global improvement since 2010 has been driven by gains in Asia, particularly in India and Bangladesh (62% and 14% gains, respectively).
Africa’s gain in electricity access rate has been 14 percentage points, from 44% to 58%, since 2010. However, with significant population growth, the unelectrified population has resulted in only a 5-million-person reduction. With Asia’s significant advancement, stronger focus and actions are required in Africa
Looking ahead, based on current trends, we are not on track to achieve SDG 7.1.1 by 2030
A current trend projection and the IEA’s scenario analysis show that we are not on track to achieve universal electricity access by 2030, as 660-674 million people are expected to remain unelectrified in 2030.
We need much stronger and tailor-made actions and investments, particularly in Africa. Regardless of improvement rates since 2010 and the size of unelectrified populations, all countries with total access rates below 50-60% need more and accelerated efforts.
Even countries with relatively high rates of access (above 60-65%) still require continuous tailor-made efforts for both urban and rural populations to reach 100% by 2030.
Differences in the rural and urban electrification rates persist both in Asia and Africa, indicating that different approaches are needed to close the gap in each region.
Asian countries typically have close to 100% urban electrification rates and high rural electrification rates, except DPR Korea. Last mile rural electrification is the key for these countries.
Sub-Saharan Africa has a 81% urban electrification rate, but a rural electrification rate of just over 29%, which has increased by only 1 percentage point in a year. A combined last-mile push in urban areas and stronger rollout of large-scale rural electrification is necessary for many countries.
There were ~675 million people in the world without access to electricity as of 2021
Population without electricity access, millions, 2021
DATA SOURCE: WORLD BANK / ESMAP Tracking SDG7 Database, 2023
24 countries make up 80% of the electrification gap, and the majority is in Africa
Countries with largest populations without electricity access, millions, 2021
DATA SOURCE: WORLD BANK / ESMAP Tracking SDG7 Database, 2023
Both Asia and Africa need a strong rural push, while most African countries also need urban electrification progress, including last-mile schemes.
Rural vs Urban electrification rates (top 24 countries), 2021
NOTE: Rural access rates of Angola and Burkina Faso for 2020 and both urban and rural rates of DPR Korea were not available from the 2023 database. The rate used for Angola was 2018 rural access rate. The last available Burkina Faso’s rural rate was 5% in 2014 and this rate was used in the figure. Both urban and rural access rates used for DPR Korea were the 2020 access rates.
DATA SOURCE: WORLD BANK / ESMAP Tracking SDG7 Database, 2023
Total number of unelectrified people declined from 1,141 million in 2010 to ~675 million in 2021. Asia’s significant progress contrasts Africa’s little progress
Population without electricity access, millions, 2010-2021
NOTE : The World Bank .ESMAP historical data up to 2020 was also updated with the 2023 dataset. This creates inconsistencies with the analysis in the previous year
DATA SOURCE: WORLD BANK / ESMAP Tracking SDG7 Database, 2023
Successful efforts by populous Asian countries could be good examples for African countries with growing populations
Reduction in unelectrified population between 2010 and 2021, millions
NOTE: These figures represent the absolute change in the number of unelectrified people between 2010 and 2021 and does not account for changes in the population due to birth rates, human migration etc.
The World Bank .ESMAP historical data up to 2020 was also updated with the 2023 dataset. This creates several inconsistencies with the analysis in the previous year
DATA SOURCE: WORLD BANK / ESMAP Tracking SDG7 Database, 2023Í
Access to clean cooking
There are ~2.3 billion people without access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking
Population without access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking, millions, 2021
NOTE: Due to lack of access rate data for various countries in the 2023 dataset as well as the possible total population data disparity, there is 51 million difference between the population reported by the 2023 Tracking SDG7 report on total world population without clean cooking access (2.3 billion people) in 2021 and the calculated population number by using the 2023 Tracking SDG7 dataset and the World Bank Total Population dataset updated on May 10, 2023. This analysis uses the total World Population without Clean Cooking Access from the 2023 Tracking SDG7 report, while the calculated population numbers are used for each country and each region. This creates the sum of the shares does not add up to 100% (it is 97.8% in total)
DATA SOURCE: WORLD BANK / ESMAP Tracking SDG7 Database, 2023 and World Bank Total Population data 2023
There are currently 2.3 billion people without access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking with 52% of them in Asia and 40% in Africa.
75% of the people without access live in just 22 countries, with 10 of them in Asia and the remaining 11 in Africa.
The Asian countries in the top 22 mostly have higher access rates than their African counterparts. However, their large population sizes leave very significant room for improvement.
Only 4 of the 11 African countries (Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana and Comoros) that are part of the top 75% challenge countries have access rates over 10%.
Russia has decreased access rate significantly (from 96% to 73%) since 2010 with a huge access deficit of 73 million people.
The number of people without access slightly improved from 3.0 billion in 2010 to 2.3 billion in 2021. The global average reduction rate of the population without clean cooking access since 2010 is just 2.4%
Asia’s progress is stronger than other regions, with an annual improvement rate of 5.0% since 2010. The population without access has declined from 2.1 billion to 1.2 billion.
Meanwhile, the number of population without clean cooking access in Africa has increased by 150 million (from ~770 million to ~920 million) since 2010, with annual average growth rate of 1.6%
Looking forward, based on current trends, we are not on track to achieve SDG 7.1.2 by 2030
A current trend projection and the IEA’s scenario analysis show that we are not on track to achieve universal access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking by 2030, as between 1.8 and 1.9 billion people are expected to remain without clean cooking access.
Countries with still large populations without access, such as India, China, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Ethiopia, should be a priority for stronger actions. Countries with very low access rates, regardless of population size, and countries with low improvement rates should be also a focus to create strong momentum to accelerate the rate of improvement.
Much larger public finance is necessary along with strategic planning, financial / fiscal incentives, and strong political will to remove barriers and create a good enabling environment for faster and larger-scale clean cooking roll-outs.
Countries with large populations without electricity and clean cooking access overlap. Electric cooking could be an option for solving both access challenges.
22 countries make up 75% of the access to clean cooking challenge
Countries with largest populations without access to clean cooking, millions, 2021
DATA SOURCE: WORLD BANK / ESMAP Tracking SDG7 Database, 2023 and World Bank Total Population data 2023
The number of people without access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking has declined slightly from 3.0 billion in 2010 to 2.2 billion in 2021
Reduction in population without access to clean cooking between 2010 and 2021, millions
NOTE: The World Bank .ESMAP historical data up to 2020 was and the total population historical data were both updated with the 2023 dataset. This creates inconsistencies with the analysis in the previous year
Some country data unavailable between 2011 and 2020 was interpolated
DATA SOURCE: WORLD BANK / ESMAP Tracking SDG7 Database, 2023 and World Bank Total Population data 2023
About 80% of African countries saw increases in the number of people without clean cooking access between 2010 and 2021, while more than 60% of Asian countries reduced the number of people without clean cooking
Reduction in population without access to clean cooking between 2010 and 2021, millions
NOTE: These figures represent the absolute change in the number of people without access to clean cooking solutions between 2010 and 2021 and does not account for changes in the population due to birth rates, human migration etc.
DATA SOURCE: WORLD BANK / ESMAP Tracking SDG7 Database, 2023 and World Bank Total Population data 2023
12 countries make up both the top 80% of the electricity access challenge and 75% of the clean cooking access challenge
Country Overlap between Electricity and Clean Cooking Access Challenges
SOURCE: ESMAP Tracking SDG7 Database, 2022; IEA World Energy Outlook 2021
While significant overlaps exist between a lack of electrification and clean cooking, the large difference of population numbers without access between the two show that electricity does not automatically contribute to clean cooking access as a fuel.
There is a correlation between electrification and access to clean cooking, but the difference in population without access in the two areas is large.
Clean cooking technologies (such as solar cookers) can be used as an entry product to unelectrified households, and e-cooking solutions may create synergy between electrification and clean cooking access.
In reality, however, e-cooking affordability, cooking traditions, and level of electricity access are some of the factors that contribute to the difference between the 2.3 billion people without access to clean cooking and 675 million without access to electricity.
For example, Tier 1 or 2 electricity access does not provide enough power for electric cooking, and efficiency plays an important role. In many parts of the world, electricity is not an affordable clean cooking fuel compared to traditional fuels. Electric cooking stoves could also be expensive and difficult to obtain due to weak local market demand and/or lack of local industry/supply. In addition, many people have strong fuel preferences on their cultural cooking practices.
To create synergy between electricity and clean cooking access through e-cooking, well-coordinated planning, policy and regulations based on the nature of market failures and more funding to multi-benefit projects may be needed.
Share of renewables
The share of renewables, including the use of traditional biomass, in total energy consumption was 19.1% in 2020, while the share of modern renewables in total energy consumption was only 12.5%.
The global share of renewables in total final energy consumption (TFEC) increased only 3.1 percentage point in 2020 from 16.0% in 2010, while the share of modern renewables also had a very modest increase of 3.8 percentage points from 8.7% in 2010.
Africa has the highest share of renewables at 57.1%, but this only includes 8.4% of modern renewables. Africa has the lowest improvement rate (0.6 percentage points) of renewable share in TFEC since 2010.
Latin America and the Caribbean follow Africa with a high renewable share in energy consumption with 34.2%. However, the share of modern renewables of the region is 29%. Asia and Oceania have a lower share of renewable energy, but the modern renewable share is higher than in Africa. North America and Europe have the least share of renewables in TFEC at 14.3%, but all are from modern renewables.
After peaking in 2017, international public investment in renewables has been declining
Although international public financial flows in support of renewable and clean energy peaked in 2017 (around USD 26 billion), totalling USD 79 billion in 5 years, annual investment has declined every year. The 2021 investment total was 41% of the 2017 amount.
Solar PV is the only technology that shows a significant increase since 2010.
Regional distribution of the total investment in renewables has been very uneven as advanced economies and China received more than 80% of the total investment.
Looking forward, based on current trends, we are not on track to achieve SDG 7.1.2 by 2030
A current trend projection and the IEA’s scenario analysis show that the share of renewables in TFEC will be increasing to around 23% by 2030, which represents weak progress compared to that in 2010 (16.0%), and below the 33-38% needed by 2030 to keep global temperature rise below 1.5 C.
Modern renewable expansion needs to be accelerated further to reduce the negative impacts of traditional biomass, particularly in Africa, and achieve much stronger progress in SDG7.2.
Increasing renewable electrification and direct renewable usage – alongside energy efficiency - in transport, industry and building sectors is necessary to accelerate SGD7.2 progress, while populations without energy access in both electricity and clean cooking should be connected with clean and modern renewable energy.
Today, the share of renewables in energy consumption is 19.1%, 12.5% of which is modern renewables
Share of renewables in total energy consumption, %, 2020
DATA SOURCE: WORLD BANK / ESMAP Tracking SDG7 Database, 2023
The share of renewables and share of modern renewables in total energy consumption increased 3.8pp and 3.1pp respectively in 2010-20, with the largest annual push in 2019-20
Share of renewables in total energy consumption, %
NOTE: The historical data up to 2019 was also updated with the 2023 dataset. This creates inconsistencies with the analysis in the previous year
DATA SOURCE: WORLD BANK / ESMAP Tracking SDG7 Database, 2023
While North America & Europe and Latin America & the Caribbean show advancement, progress in Asia, Oceania and Africa remains VERY slow.
Share of renewables in energy consumption, %, 2010, 2020
NOTE: The historical data up to 2019 was also updated with the 2023 dataset. This creates inconsistencies with the analysis in the previous year
DATA SOURCE: WORLD BANK / ESMAP Tracking SDG7 Database, 2023
Only 18% of energy consumption of the top 20 energy-consuming countries is from renewables
Energy Consumption and Share of Renewable Energy of Top 20 Energy Consuming Countries, 2020
DATA SOURCE: WORLD BANK / ESMAP Tracking SDG7 Database, 2023
Significant increases in shares of renewables require strong actions in Heat and Transport
Share of renewables in world final energy consumption by sector, 2020 %
DATA SOURCE: WORLD BANK / ESMAP Tracking SDG7 Database, 2022 and ; IEA World Energy Outlook, 2022
Energy Efficiency
Today, it takes 4.6 MJ of energy to generate USD 1 of economic activity. Regional Energy Intensities have not largely improved since 2019, except for slight improvement in Africa
Energy intensity, MJ/USD 2017 ppp, 2020
DATA SOURCE: WORLD BANK / ESMAP Tracking SDG7 Database, 2023
Globally it took 4.6 MJ (megajoules) of energy to generate USD 1 of economic activity in 2020
Africa is the least-efficient region with 5.4 MJ/USD GDP, followed by Asia with 5.0 MJ/USD GDP. Both regions have higher energy intensity than the world average and their progress is slow.
Latin America & the Caribbean is the least energy intensive region with 3.3 MJ/USD GDP, followed by North America and Europe (4.1 MJ/USD GDP) and Oceania (4.3 MJ/USD GDP). The three regions’ energy intensities have not been improved since 2019.
Of the top 20 most energy-consuming countries:
- Two-thirds have lower energy intensity than the top 20 peer average.
- 12 are more efficient than the world average, with the United Kingdom, Italy and Turkey leading the way.
- 17 countries have improved their energy intensity since 2015.
Focusing on countries in these top 20 energy consuming countries with higher energy intensity and/or low improvement rate will be effective.
Looking back, we see that the global energy intensity has decreased from 5.5 MJ/USD GDP in 2010 to 4.6 MJ/USD GDP in 2020, corresponding to an average rate of improvement of 1.8%
This is a higher pace of improvement compared to the 1.2% in 1990-2010. However, the rates of improvement have significantly slowed down in recent years, with the lowest 0.4% annual improvement rate since 2010 occuring from 2019 to 2020, well below SDG 7.3 targets. Initial estimates suggest a return to faster progress (2%) in 2022.
Looking forward, we will need an energy intensity improvement rate of at least 3.4 percent per year through 2030 to achieve SDG 7.3, and even higher (4%) to achieve Net-Zero by 2050
Due to the slowdown in the rate of improvement of energy intensity since 2015, reaching SDG 7.3 will require a much higher improvement rate than the original expected rate of 2.6 percent. The IEA’s scenario analysis shows that we are not on track and a 3.4% of annual improvement rate is necessary between 2021 and 2030 to achieve SDG7.3
To ensure we get on track, all end-use sectors (industry, transport and building) need to be incentivized to be more energy efficient. As economic structures are quite diverse from one country to another, in-depth analysis of sector specific energy intensity data is warranted to create sound strategies for each country
Two thirds of the top 20 energy consumption countries have energy intensity lower than the world average
Energy Consumption and Energy Intensity of Top 20 Energy Consuming Countries, 2020
DATA SOURCE: WORLD BANK / ESMAP Tracking SDG7 Database, 2023
17 highest energy consumption countries have decreased energy intensity while Iran, Nigeria, and Russia increased their energy intensity since 2015
Growth of Energy Intensity and GDP of Top 20 Energy Consuming Countries, 2015-2020
Notes: Energy intensity is defined as total energy supply divided by gross domestic product (GDP). The 2020 data shows Thailand, instead of Pakistan, is in top 20 energy supply countries. However, the comparison here was made for top 20 energy consumption countries.
DATA SOURCE: WORLD BANK / ESMAP Tracking SDG7 Database, 2023
An energy intensity improvement rate of at least 3.4 percent per year through 2030 will be needed to achieve SDG 7.3
Energy Intensity Annual Reduction Rate (%), Historical and Forecasted
NOTE: The World Bank/ESMAP historical data up to 2019 were also updated with the 2023 dataset. This creates inconsistencies with the analysis from the previous year.
SOURCE: World Bank/ESMAP Tracking SDG7 Database, 2023 and Tracking SDG7 Progress Report 2023
