Chilling Prospects 2021

Chilling Prospects: Tracking Sustainable Cooling for All 2021

Chilling Prospects 2021 cover

This is the fourth edition of the ground-breaking Chilling Prospects series, which tracks immediate vulnerability due to a lack of access to cooling. The work identifies populations at risk for whom a lack of access to cooling threatens their immediate health and safety. It models risk based on a spectrum of cooling needs: human comfort and safety; agriculture, food and nutrition security; and health services and medicine. On this basis, it categorizes risk across four populations: the rural poor, the urban poor, the lower-middle income and the middle income.

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Global Tracking 
Compared to 2020, the analysis shows an increase of approximately 50 million people who are at high risk of a lack of access to cooling. More

Populations at Risk 
Across 54 high-impact countries 1.09 billion people among the rural and urban poor are at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling. More

Regional Trends
Cooling access gaps for the rural and urban poor at highest risk grew Africa, Asia and the Middle East, Latin America and the Caribbean compared to the previous year. More


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Sub-national Cooling Risks
Chilling Prospects 2021 uses geo-spatial and sub-national data to better identify regions within countries that have risks due to lack of access to cooling. It uses data on the location of where people live, their exposure to high temperatures, as well as economic and energy access trends. More

Populations at Risk in Countries Not Considered High-Impact
The analysis identified 22 additional countries where cooling access risks are likely to exist for smaller pockets of the population. More


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Impact of COVID-19 on Access to Cooling

While it is evident that the pace of vaccination is uneven and inequities are likely to be exacerbated in the coming months, support for sustainable cold chains represents an opportunity to address immediate equity considerations and deliver a lasting impact in support of the economic and social recovery from the pandemic. More 

Challenges in Vaccine Rollout Linked to Cooling
A dramatic expansion in cold chain equipment will be necessary to guarantee equitable distribution of COVID-19 vaccines. More

Addressing Vaccine Cold Chain Access Gaps at the Last Mile
Those living at the last mile in countries without sufficient vaccine cold chains that will be at risk of not being able to access a COVID-19 vaccine specifically due to cooling requirements. More


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Sustainable Cooling Solutions in Action
As sustainable cooling solutions are piloted and demonstrated across the developing world, more data about their impacts on the local level are becoming available. More

Latin America: Passive technology and business model innovation creating a healthier, more productive city in Medellín

Rwanda: The growing market potential of solar cold storage for horticulture products

Sub-Saharan Africa: Youth-led solutions for vaccine and agricultural cold chain challenges

Bangladesh and Indonesia: The power of passive solutions


This report is part of the series:  Chilling Prospects


High-impact countries

Algeria, Angola, Argentina, Bangladesh, Benin, Bolivia, Brazil, Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Cameroon, Chad, China, Congo, Rep., Cote d'Ivoire, Djibouti, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Eritrea, Eswatini, Gambia, The; Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, India, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Lao PDR, Liberia, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Senegal, Somalia, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Togo, Uganda, Vietnam, Yemen

Data: High-impact countries 2010-2020

Critical 9

The Critical 9 are the countries with largest number of people at high risk: India, China, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Mozambique, Sudan, Brazil


The non-high-impact countries are Afghanistan, Belize, Bhutan, Central African Republic, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Georgia, Guatemala, Honduras, Jordan, Lebanon, Mexico, Nepal, Sierra Leone, Syria Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, West Bank and Gaza.