Africa’s cooling opportunity

Millions of people in Africa and the rest of the world are at risk from rising temperatures, due to climate change. With the threats to their health, prosperity and future, there is an urgent need to accelerate access to sustainable cooling systems.

Sustainable Energy for All (SEforALL)’s, Chilling Prospects: Tracking Sustainable Cooling for All 2025, finds that more than one billion people globally are impacted by inadequate cooling for human comfort and safety, food systems and health care. The most vulnerable include 309 million in rural populations where electricity is largely unavailable, and 695 million in crowded urban settlements where power is absent, unreliable or unaffordable. A staggering proportion of these people live in Africa and the report projects 1.05 billion could be at high risk globally by 2030, unless urgent action is taken.

Across Sub-Saharan Africa, the lack of cooling systems is a matter of survival. Vaccines degrade in the heat, risking immunization programs. Fresh food spoils, worsening hunger, malnutrition and economic losses. Heat waves become deadlier for the elderly, children, and those with pre-existing health conditions. Workers lose productivity, undermining economic development.

Nigeria, Sudan and Mozambique are among the nine most vulnerable nations worldwide to these risks. As UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized in his Call to Action on Extreme Heat, high temperatures kill almost half a million people annually.

The cruel irony is that cooling demand is surging due to a warming planet—yet conventional cooling systems are major contributors to global warming. Air conditioners and refrigerators consume massive amounts of energy and often use hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants; more potent greenhouse gases than carbon dioxide. Unabated, cooling could account for more than 10% of global emissions.

Amid the crisis is economic opportunity. The Cooler Finance: Mobilizing Investment for the Developing World's Sustainable Cooling Needs report by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and the International Finance Corporation (IFC) predicts the cooling market in developing economies will double to at least USD 600 billion annually by 2050. Africa will deliver the fastest growth, at seven-fold. This represents a massive private sector opportunity to generate more than USD 8 trillion in benefits for developing countries, cutting consumers' electricity bills by USD 5.6 trillion over 25 years and reducing investment needed in new power generation by USD 1.8 trillion. For African nations struggling with energy access and grid capacity, sustainable cooling can be a smart economic policy.

Ongoing attempts to address this challenge include the Global Cooling Pledge, launched during COP28, with over 71 countries and 60 non-state actors committing to reduce cooling-related emissions by 68% by 2050, while ensuring equitable access to cooling solutions for vulnerable populations. African nations including Kenya and Nigeria have signed the pledge to boost the global average efficiency of new air conditioning equipment by 50% by 2030.

More recently the COP30 Presidency and UNEP's Cool Coalition launched the Beat the Heat/Mutirão contra o Calor Extremo Implementation Drive to support cities with heat risk assessments, nature-based cooling solutions, sustainable procurement and building code adoption. Fifteen cities have endorsed the pledge, with many more expected. Fast-growing African cities have tremendous opportunities to integrate cooling into urban planning through green and blue spaces, building codes and public procurement of efficient cooling technologies.

As global warming reshapes heat stress patterns, forecasting using advanced technologies, planning and proactive integration for passive cooling interventions and solutions becomes essential. SEforALL's Open Building Insights (OBI) tool— jointly developed with IBM through the IBM Sustainability Accelerator— leverages satellite imagery and AI to provide building footprint data, classification (residential vs. non-residential) and energy consumption estimates. Across Kenya and Maharashtra, India, the tool is helping planners identify where passive cooling interventions are needed most urgently. In Kenya’s Makueni County, OBI insights are projected to deliver better-targeted energy and cooling interventions to approximately 1.14 million citizens by 2030. This is complemented by IBM's Modeling Urban Growth (MUG) open-source AI model that predicts future urbanization patterns using historical satellite data.

Faster progress on delivering sustainable cooling for all hinges on three key actions:

1. Update existing plans - In the face of new cooling technologies, accelerating climate impacts and more sophisticated financing mechanisms, older National Cooling Action Plans (NCAPs) should be refreshed to incorporate the latest best practices, commitments and initiatives.
2. Develop robust investment roadmaps - Countries must quantify the investments needed to address cooling access gaps and create credible financing roadmaps. The UNEP and IFC estimate that closing existing cooling access gaps for households and small businesses will require USD 400-800 billion in upfront capital investment globally. This substantial sum represents the infrastructure, equipment, and energy system upgrades necessary to provide sustainable cooling access to underserved populations, particularly in developing countries where climate vulnerability is highest. The Green Climate Fund (GCF) emerges as one of several critical funding sources that can help bridge this investment gap, offering below-market-rate loans and grants to make cooling projects financially viable where commercial financing may be too expensive or unavailable.
3. Strengthen private sector engagement - Manufacturers of cooling equipment, based in African countries or operating internationally, must collaborate on minimum energy performance standards, invest in local manufacturing and assembly. They must also provide affordable financing and training while developing products tailored to Africa.

As nations prepare their next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the message is clear: cooling must be at the centre of climate and development strategies. Cambodia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ghana, Japan, Kenya, Nigeria, Singapore and Vietnam have expressed intention to incorporate cooling into their updated NDCs and more nations must follow suit.

The challenge is urgent, but the solutions are within reach. With organizations like SEforALL providing technical support, development partners offering financing, UNEP's Cool Coalition facilitating global coordination and manufacturers rolling out efficient technologies, African countries can leapfrog old inefficient, polluting cooling systems and ensure everyone has access to life-saving, sustainable cooling.

Every degree of warming, every heat wave, and every spoiled vaccine reminds us of what is at stake. By signing the Global Cooling Pledge, the Sub-national Global Cooling Pledge, joining the Beat the Heat initiative, updating NCAPs and Heat Action Plans with concrete investment roadmaps, leverage new initiatives like UNEP's Enabling Pledge Implementation for Cooling (EPIC) Facility, and prioritizing passive cooling solutions that reach the most vulnerable, African nations can protect their people, strengthen their economies, and lead the world toward a cooler, more equitable future.