Country Highlights: The Critical 9

• Among the "Critical 9" countries[5], 2023–2024 saw a marginal decrease in the total population at high risk from a lack of access to cooling (from 704 to 688 million). The population at medium risk decreased marginally too, from 2.10 billion in 2023 to 2.09 billion in 2024, while the population at low risk increased (from 847 to 872 million).
• Bangladesh, Mozambique, Nigeria and Pakistan: Modest shifts in their populations moving out of high risk , but these countries face intense heat (144, 192, 165 and 186 days with projected maximum temperatures above 35°C respectively, in 2024).
  • India: The population at high risk declined by -4.4 percent, while that at low risk rose +13.3 percent, suggesting progress in reducing critical exposure to humid heat stress (measured as 94 days per year with a heat index above 35°C ).
  • China: The population at medium risk decreased sharply (-29.7 million) as did the population at high risk (-3.4 million) while the population at low risk increased (+5.6 million). This suggests a consistent reduction in cooling access risks in China, despite there being over 115 days of extreme heat in the country per year. 
  • Brazil and Indonesia: Small reductions in their populations at high-risk (-1.75 percent and -3.8 percent, respectively), and gains in populations at low risk (+0.7 percent and +5.7 percent, respectively).
  • Sudan: An outlier with a +7.2 percent spike in its high-risk population (signalling growing cooling access risks), and a –9 percent drop in high- and medium-risk populations, respectively, with the low-risk population also declining -2 percent. Sudan also stands out with 216 days per year over 35°C — the highest among the group.
• Looking ahead to 2030, a pattern is emerging in Bangladesh, Brazil, China and Indonesia, where low-risk populations without access to cooling are expected to increase substantially. Among this group, Bangladesh is the only country projected to not reduce its high-risk population, reflecting widening inequality or uneven access to resilience measures:
  • Brazil: Populations at high and medium risk are projected to drop -8.8 percent and-7.1 percent, respectively, but population at low risk is projected to rise +6.8 percent.
  • Bangladesh: Population at high and medium risk is projected to remain relatively consistent, with population at low risk increasing substantively, by +49.8 percent.
  • China: Population at high and medium risk is projected to decrease significantly (-24.8% and -34.2 percent, respectively), while the population at low risk is projected to rise +9.5 percent, suggesting an overall reduction in cooling access risks.
  • Indonesia: Population at high risk is projected to decrease -16.5 percent, population at medium risk is projected to grow +4 percent, and population at low-risk is projected to rise +7 percent – shifting out of critical risk, but unevenly.
• India and Pakistan are also notable for the projected growth in their populations’ low-risk groups by 2030 (+29.5 percent and +24.9 percent, respectively), and modest increases in their populations at medium risk by 2030. However, India is expected to see a reduction in its high-risk population of 7.4 percent, while Pakistan’s high-risk population is expected to increase 1.4 percent over the same period.

Learn more about countries’ progress on sustainable cooling:

• Country Brief: Sustainable Cooling for All in Kenya
• Country Brief: Sustainable Cooling for All in Ghana
• Case studies

[5] The Critical 9 countries are: Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mozambique, Nigeria, Pakistan and Sudan.