Projecting Access to Cooling in 2030 under Current Trends

Under a current-trends scenario, the global population at high risk of a lack of access to cooling is projected to grow by 43.3 million to reach almost 1.05 billion by 2030 (+4 percent), indicating an upward trend in vulnerability over time.

• The scale of the cooling access gap is already immense and projected to grow further if urgent action is not taken. Projections show slight progress in the numbers of rural poor, decreasing to 304.1 million in 2030, while the numbers of urban poor grow by 7 percent, or 48.5 million, to 744.2 million people in the same period.
• Key countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are projected to see increases in their high-risk populations. These include Angola (+36 percent), Chad (+25 percent), Malawi (+22 percent), Mozambique (+24 percent), Nigeria (+11 percent) and Sudan (+62 percent).
• The projected rise in high-risk populations, particularly in urban areas, underscores the need for urgent resilience measures in urban planning, and targeted interventions to mitigate risks. However, cooling access in rural areas must not be overlooked – rural communities face distinct challenges, including limited infrastructure, lack of cold chains for food and medicine, affordability challenges, and exposure to extreme heat in homes, schools and workplaces.

Figure 6: Increasing Risk in Sub-Saharan Africa

The lower middle-income group at medium risk of a lack of access to cooling is expected to increase, but at a slow pace. In 2030, the number of people in this risk group is expected to grow by 23.9 million people compared to 2024, to 2.85 billion people.

• This will include a projected substantial reduction in China of approximately 135 million people, and increases in India (62.1 million), Nigeria (16.4 million) and Pakistan (22.5 million).
• In some countries, such as China, reductions in lower-middle income imply movement to lower risk levels. However, in other countries, such as Angola and Sudan, reductions reflect an expected increase in the number of people at high risk.

While the projected growth in the number of people at low risk, from 1.2 billion in 2024 to 1.35 billion in 2030, appears encouraging, growth in the number of people at high risk (+43.3 million) and medium risk (+23.9 million) over the same period indicates that people are not moving out of risk entirely.

• This underscores a critical challenge: while economic growth may improve access in some regions, it will not be sufficient to bridge the gap for the poorest households, particularly in hot and humid climates.