Access to Cooling Risk

Figure 1: Global Access to Cooling Risk Tracker 2024-2030

Figure 2: Risk groups and main risk factors by country (thousand people)

Access to adequate cooling is a critical but often overlooked dimension of sustainable, resilient development. As temperatures rise and the effects of extreme and prolonged heat stress become apparent, access to cooling becomes essential to address three interconnected needs: (a) agriculture, food security and nutrition; (b) health services; and (c) human safety and comfort.

Just over 1 billion people are at high risk of a lack of access to crucial cooling solutions in the 77 countries analyzed.[1] While some countries, including China and India, are making significant progress, population growth is increasing faster than access to cooling solutions, particularly in urban environments where the number of poor at high risk is more than double the number among the rural poor.

Poverty rates and infrastructural inequalities are persisting, making it more difficult for those at high risk to afford or power cooling solutions. Energy access progress is accelerating in Asia, but in Sub-Saharan Africa progress is slow, and only slightly ahead of population growth. While some countries have seen recoveries from losses sustained during the pandemic, others have experienced uneven gains or increases in populations facing cooling access risks. By 2030, 645 million people will not have access to energy under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, and in combination with exacerbated economic inequality and the threat of increased and sustained heat stress, 1.05 billion people are forecast to remain at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling, approximately 50 million more than in 2024.

Among those at high risk in 2024 were:

• Over 309 million people among the rural poor.
  • The number of rural poor at risk returned to below pre-pandemic levels in 2024, driven by India which has reduced its rural poor at risk by over 13 million compared to 2023 figures, and over 65 million compared to 2020 figures.
  • Key countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with significant energy access gaps are experiencing zero-to-low progress. These include Malawi, Mozambique, Nigeria, Sudan and Uganda.

Figure 3: Country Highlights: Rural Poor

• Just over 695 million people among the urban poor.
  • The number of urban poor at high risk has consistently declined since 2019, but at a slow pace and only by 19 million people.
  • Both China (-18 million) and India (-2 million) saw reductions in their urban poor at risk populations, though at a slower pace in India compared to China. Together, they account for 42 percent of the urban poor at high risk.
  • In Sub-Saharan Africa, urbanization and population growth are making progress challenging. In Angola and Sudan for example, increases in risk have outpaced urbanization.

Figure 4: Growth in Urban Poor in Angola and Sudan since 2019

• The rural and urban poor consists of 512 million women and 492 million men. Women are more vulnerable to heat than men due to intersecting disparities such as a lack of essential services, including safe water and sanitation; higher care burdens in often crowded and poorly built homes; and a higher likelihood of working in low-paid, strenuous and exploitative jobs.    

The people at medium-risk of a lack of access to cooling  is the largest group (2.83 billion people)

• This group faces a double burden: On the one hand, the unaffordability of high-quality cooling solutions puts them at continued risk from heat exposure. On the other hand, adoption of cheaper, but less efficient, options available could lock in a high-emissions trajectory (see the Global Cooling Watch 2023 for cooling capacity and emissions estimates).
• The countries with the fastest growing populations at medium risk are now Argentina, Chad, Kenya, Niger, Republic of the Congo, South Sudan and Uganda, each with a growth rate over 5 percent.

Figure 5: Populations at Risk in China and India

1.2 billion middle-income people fall into the low-risk category.

• Since 2019, the number of people in the low-risk category has increased 16.5 percent, by almost 170 million people, including notable increases of almost 7 million people in Bangladesh and over 95 million people in China.
• Beyond the 77 countries assessed for this analysis, and regardless of their stage of development, most countries that face increasing heat stress because of climate change are likely to have populations at low risk, who can afford more efficient cooling devices than lower-income populations. As heat extremes increase, including in the Global North, sustainable cooling technologies must continue to be made more affordable and accessible through policy, financial and other interventions.

Learn more about cooling needs:

• Food, nutrition and agriculture 
• Health services
• Human comfort and safety
• Sustainable cooling for cities

Browse cooling solutions:

• This Is Cool – Sustainable Cooling Solutions Tool
• Sustainable Cooling in Off-Grid Rural Areas | The Nexus between Access to Energy and Clean Cooling

[1] The analysis assesses 54 high-impact countries for access to cooling determined by previous Chilling Prospects analyses, as well as high-temperature regions of 23 countries not considered to be high impact, but with localized cooling access risks. High-impact countries are those expected to experience sustained high temperatures with significant populations at high risk from a lack of access to cooling due to poverty and electricity access gaps. For a full list, see here. The evaluation of an additional 23 countries considers that heat vulnerability can exist regionally despite a country having a low overall average temperature and number of Cooling Degree Days, and that lower socioeconomic status can create cooling access risks in middle-income or developed countries.