Analysis: Risk Trajectories Across Countries

UNEVEN GAINS:

• Among the 54 high-impact countries for access to cooling, 23 fall into the “Uneven Gains” category. These countries made consistent progress in reducing their populations at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling either in rural or urban areas, but not both, during the period 2019–2024. In most cases, populations at high risk in rural areas have decreased or remained at the same level, while urban populations at high risk have continued to grow.
• This pattern is evident in Bangladesh (32.7 million people at high risk), Côte d’Ivoire (9.3 million) and Pakistan (46.3 million), where, despite progress in reducing risk among the rural poor, the number of urban poor at high risk continues to increase. These countries still have large overall populations at high risk, showing that unbalanced progress does little to reduce total vulnerability.
• Eritrea (+4 percent urban Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)),[2] Guinea (+3 percent urban CAGR), and Namibia (+4 percent urban CAGR) have seen the fastest growth in urban populations at risk, despite stable or declining rural populations at risk. This trend calls for stronger, targeted urban cooling strategies, especially in secondary cities and informal settlements where exposure may be growing fastest.
• Increasing risk in poor urban areas is likely a result of slow progress – or even backsliding – in electricity access, as seen in Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Dominican Republic and Eritrea. In other countries, the main driver is rapid growth in urban populations living in poverty or slums, where access to affordable cooling solutions or high-performance buildings remains
• Conversely, Algeria (0 percent rural CAGR, -10 percent urban), Argentina (-7 percent rural CAGR, 0 percent urban) and Paraguay (+4 percent rural CAGR, -2 percent urban) have reduced or stabilized urban risk while rural trends have plateaued or decreased.

LOSING GROUND

• The largest group of countries – 26 out of 54 – are losing ground, with annual average increases in populations at high risk in both rural and urban poor areas between 2019 and 2024.
• Some countries are seeing particularly fast-growing risk. Iraq (+34 percent rural CAGR, +5 percent urban), Sri Lanka (+10 percent rural CAGR, +11 percent urban), Sudan (+16 percent rural CAGR, +8 percent urban), , Timor-Leste (+22 percent rural CAGR, +12 percent urban) and Yemen (+6 percent rural CAGR, +7 percent urban) are among the most concerning cases, where risk is rising on a year-to-year basis across both rural and urban settings.
• Several countries already have large populations at high risk, amplifying the consequences. They include Angola (29.9 million), Malawi (17.4 million), Mozambique (31.3 million), Nigeria (124.4 million), Sudan (32.5 million) and Uganda (25.8 million). For these countries, worsening risk trends may intensify existing social, economic and health challenges, especially in the absence of adequate cooling, shelter and healthcare infrastructure.
• A key driver of these negative trends is slow progress – or even backsliding – in electricity access, a critical enabler of resilience to extreme heat. Chad, Malawi and South Sudan have made no material gains in access rates in recent years, while their unelectrified populations have continued to grow. Angola, Ghana, Mozambique and Nigeria, and Republic of the Congo have seen only slow progress.[3]

MAKING PROGRESS

• Only nine of the 54 countries analyzed consistently reduced the number of both high-risk rural and urban poor between 2019 and 2024 — signalling important, though limited, success stories.
• The most notable large-scale improvements were seen in Brazil (-10 percent rural CAGR, -2 percent urban), China (-5 percent urban CAGR),[4] Indonesia (-14 percent rural CAGR, -3 percent urban), and Iran (-11 percent CAGR rural, -9 percent urban). These countries have managed to increase access across both urban and rural areas.
• Djibouti (-1 percent rural CAGR, 0 percent urban), Egypt (-9 percent rural CAGR, -10 percent urban), Eswatini (-2 percent rural CAGR, 0 percent urban), Lao PDR (-3 percent rural CAGR, -2 percent urban), and Thailand (-39 percent CAGR rural, -6 percent urban),  also show steady progress.
• While some countries in this group still have substantial populations at high risk — including Brazil (27.7 million), China (69.7 million) and Indonesia (25.1 million) — their progress suggests that structural policy interventions, electrification, economic development and cooling access initiatives may be paying off. These examples could provide valuable lessons for countries in the "losing ground" or "uneven gains" categories.

Progress depends heavily on a conducive enabling environment for sustainable cooling. Establishing intergovernmental coordination mechanisms for sustainable cooling and collaboration amongst development institutions and project financiers is a key first step. These can help identify policy and regulatory reforms that can accelerate progress, such as building code updates for passive and nature-based cooling, integration of sustainable cooling into national electrification strategies, or the development of roadmaps for agricultural and health cold chain expansion. Policy and regulatory progress plays an important role in unlocking additional finance for sustainable cooling and for giving financial institutions and project implementers the confidence to invest in their sustainable cooling projects.

Learn more about the enabling environment for access to sustainable cooling:

• Sustainable cooling policy progress
• Sustainable cooling financial flows
• Sustainable cooling community of practice

[2] Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR): The average annual growth rate of a value over a period of time, assuming growth occurs at a consistent rate. CAGR is measured
[3] https://www.seforall.org/system/files?file=2024-09/report-sdg7backsliding-full_FINAL_compressed.pdf 
[4] The Rural Poor population in China is zero