Regional Trends

Sub-Saharan Africa: Persistent High-Risk Populations

Sub-Saharan Africa continues to have the largest number of people at high risk of a lack of access to cooling globally. Under current trends, both urban and rural populations face sustained vulnerability through 2030, driven by rapid population growth, persisting gaps in electricity access, and heat exposure. While there is significant growth in the number of people at medium risk, the number of people among the low-risk population remains negligible—underscoring persistent structural challenges and limited resilience gains.

Eastern and South-Eastern Asia: Declining High Risk

Eastern and Southeastern Asia have the most significant decline in high-risk populations, with rural poor populations reaching negligible levels under current trends, and urban poor populations seeing marked improvements. Notably, the medium-risk group also shrinks over time, while the low-risk population expands steadily. These trends reflect positive economic performance and improved infrastructure that are shifting entire populations into lower-risk categories.

Latin America and the Caribbean: Stabilized Urban Risk, Rural Gains

The number of urban poor at high risk in Latin America and the Caribbean has plateaued after an initial decline, indicating ongoing challenges related to inequality and urban vulnerability. However, the number of rural poor at high risk continues to shrink. There is a moderate rise in the medium-risk group, and the low-risk population grows gradually under current trends, suggesting incremental gains in resilience, but uneven progress in urban settings.

Central and Southern Asia: Shifting from High to Medium Risk

Central and Southern Asia has shown a gradual decline in high-risk populations since 2010, particularly in rural areas. However, many of these populations are transitioning into the medium-risk group rather than shifting to the low-risk group, reflecting only partial improvements. Under current trends, the expansion of the medium-risk groups indicates that combined efforts are needed to protect communities from heat with efficient and sustainable solutions, in order to avoid a sharp increase in cooling-related energy demand and emissions. 

Western Asia and Northern Africa: Rising Rural Risk, Stagnant Resilience

In contrast to many other regions, the high-risk rural population in Western Asia and Northern Africa is increasing steadily, particularly since 2015. Meanwhile, the medium-risk population – after decades of expansion – has been in decline since 2020, suggesting that gains are stalling or reversing for many. Low-risk populations are growing, but only gradually, indicating slow and uneven improvements in overall resilience.

Oceania: Small Population, Shifting Risk Profile

Although overall population numbers are small, the high-risk group is growing steadily, particularly in rural areas vulnerable to climate extremes. There is also a slight increase in the medium-risk group, while the low-risk population remains at the same level, highlighting the acute and growing vulnerability of Oceania’s communities.

Projections to 2030: Progress Uneven, Risks Persist

Under current trends, despite gains in parts of Asia and Latin America, high-risk populations remain substantial in the 77 countries assessed – especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. The slow expansion of low-risk populations in many regions, combined with a growing middle-risk group, suggests that current efforts are not yet sufficient. Rising temperatures, demographic shifts, urbanization and inequality will continue to shape vulnerability patterns. The growth in cooling demand from medium-risk groups will add substantial pressure onto energy systems and emissions, unless met with scaled-up policy and investment towards efficient, sustainable cooling solutions.