Chilling Prospects 2022: Urban land-use and heat analysis in major cities of the Critical 9 countries
Dhaka, Bangladesh
2015: 17,597,000
2019: 20,284,000
Present: 22,265,410
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Source: Climate Change Knowledge Portal, The World Bank Group, 2022 |
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Between 2015 and 2019, Dhaka added 0.93 square kilometers of built-up area for domestic and commercial use. This buildup came at the expense of 0.27 square kilometers of herbaceous vegetation, 0.44 square kilometers of cultivated and managed vegetation, and 0.1 square kilometers of herbaceous wetland.
Dhaka is expected to experience sustained high temperatures above 25°C in the most optimistic scenario, and a significant number of dangerous heat days over 35°C between March and June annually. The loss of cultivated land for fruits and vegetables not only implies a reduced ability to grow crops locally, but also diminishes the resilience of a growing urban population to the dangers of extreme heat. Understanding this impact and placing emphasis on urban greening and land to cultivate produce is likely to benefit both the UHIE in the city as well as food security.
Jakarta, Indonesia
2015: 10,173,000
2019: 10,639,000
Present: 11,028,848
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Source: Climate Change Knowledge Portal, The World Bank Group, 2022 |
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Between 2015 and 2019, Jakarta increased its built-up area by 0.87 square kilometers at the expense of 0.25 square kilometers of herbaceous vegetation, 0.19 square kilometers of cultivated and managed vegetation, and 0.1 square kilometers each of bare/sparse vegetation and water bodies. This process also included the removal of 0.14 square kilometers of open forest that would have had a passive cooling effect on urban areas.
These changes were driven by increasing urbanization, but in combination with a growing number of days above 25°C annually, are likely to exacerbate the UHIE in the city. Even though Jakarta is not projected to have many days with dangerous heat (above 35°C), this trend will lead to increased cooling needs that could dramatically increase energy demand if met with inefficient, active cooling technologies. An expansion of green urban areas through land-use planning would help reverse these losses and reduce heat stress felt by residents on high-temperature days.
Karachi, Pakistan
2015: 14,289,000
2019: 15,741,000
Present: 16,730,070
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Source: Climate Change Knowledge Portal, The World Bank Group, 2022 |
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Between 2015 and 2019, Karachi gained 6.63 square kilometers of built-up area at the expense of 1.82 square kilometers of shrubs, 0.18 square kilometers of herbaceous vegetation, 0.31 square kilometers of cultivated and managed vegetation, 3.6 square kilometers of bare or sparse vegetation, and 0.74 square kilometers of open forest.
Karachi made significant changes to its land-use patterns between 2015 and 2019, which has implications for food safety, agricultural production and thermal comfort. While the built-up area increased by 6.63 square kilometers, land used for cultivating produce grew by a significantly larger amount, 213 square kilometers. This provides the city with resources to grow local produce, benefitting residents and farmers through better food security and enhanced agricultural incomes, though there is a need for an expansion of the local cold chain to reduce potential post-harvest losses.
With Karachi set to experience a high number of days with dangerous heat between April and October every year, further urban planning efforts to reduce the UHIE and reliance on inefficient, mechanical cooling would especially benefit the most vulnerable urban dwellers.
Lagos, Nigeria
2015: 12,239,000
2019: 13,904,000
Present: 15,236,259
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Source: Climate Change Knowledge Portal, The World Bank Group, 2022 |
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Between 2015 and 2019, Lagos saw an increase of 0.43 square kilometers of built-up area. This came at the expense of 0.37 square kilometers of herbaceous vegetation, and marginal reductions in cultivated and managed vegetation, bare or sparse vegetation, water bodies and open forest.
Even in the most optimistic scenario, it is likely that there will be an increase in the number of days with dangerous heat (more than 35°C) per year for Lagos. Coupling this with rising sea levels, urbanization processes need to not only factor in human comfort and safety but also increased urban resilience.
Maputo, Mozambique
2015: 1,100,000
2019: 1,104,000
Present: 1,134,096
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Source: Climate Change Knowledge Portal, The World Bank Group, 2022 |
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Between 2015 and 2019, Maputo increased its built-up area by 0.3 square kilometers and lost 0.12 square kilometers of herbaceous vegetation, as well as marginal amounts of shrubs, cultivated and managed vegetation, water bodies and open forest.
Mozambique does not have a large urban population — 63 percent of its people still live in rural areas — [8] and this is reflected in the observed land-use changes. But the city is planning for expansion, including through the Maputo Urban Transformation Project. [9]
It is expected to see over four days of dangerous heat (+35°C) annually between September and February, presenting urban planners in Maputo with a unique opportunity to plan early for the increasing effects of heat, for example through natural heat sinks, increased green spaces and improved passive cooling measures.
Mumbai, India
Population
2015: 19,316,000
2019: 20,185,000
Present: 20,876,486
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Source: Climate Change Knowledge Portal, The World Bank Group, 2022 |
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Between 2015 and 2019, Mumbai gained 0.9 square kilometers of built-up area at the expense of 0.14 square kilometers of herbaceous vegetation, 0.14 square kilometers of cultivated and managed vegetation, 0.28 square kilometers of closed forest, 0.16 square kilometers of open forest, and lesser amounts from shrubs, bare/sparse vegetation and water bodies.
Each year large segments of India’s population move to Mumbai from rural areas for social, economic and environmental opportunities. This migration has contributed to the expansion of informal settlements, including the Dharavi slum that is now home to more than 1 million people. [10] With projections for at least 15 days per month of dangerous heat between March and June each year, these people will be increasingly vulnerable to a lack of access to cooling.
Heat-action planning, and public cooling centres are among the types of low-cost solutions that can help meet their cooling needs. So too is urban greening, which was prioritized by the Government of Maharashtra in its recent climate change action plan. [11]
Omdurman, Sudan
2015: (Reliable data not available)
2019: (Reliable data not available)
Present: (Reliable data not available)
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Source: Climate Change Knowledge Portal, The World Bank Group, 2022 |
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Between 2015 and 2019, Omdurman gained 0.48 square kilometers of built-up area at the expense of bare or sparse vegetation typical to the climate of the region.
The Omdurman-Khartoum region has grown rapidly over the past three decades and is projected to see over 20 days per month of dangerous heat between April and October annually between 2020 and 2039. In addition to heat, increased flooding over the past decade has also created challenges for urban residents. [12] With this in mind, the city has a unique opportunity to use urban planning and expansion processes to mitigate both urban heat and flooding risks at the same time, leveraging its water resources for nature-based urban cooling.
São Paulo, Brazil
2015:20,883,000
2019:21,847,000
Present: 22,374,333
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Source: Climate Change Knowledge Portal, The World Bank Group, 2022 |
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Between 2015 and 2019, São Paulo, Brazil increased its built-up area by 2.27 square kilometers and reduced its area of herbaceous vegetation by 1.1 square kilometers and its area of open forest by 1.03 square kilometers. The city also saw small reductions in its areas of cultivated and managed vegetation, bare or sparse vegetation, herbaceous wetland and closed forest.
In São Paulo, rapid urbanization is increasing the number of people living in informal settlements known as favelas. These are typically constructed to a low standard, often by residents themselves, and are often located on wasteland, marshy land, or in flood-prone areas.
The city experiences sustained temperatures above 25°C in the summer months and is also projected to see four days per month of dangerous heat between September and November every year, exposing these residents to significant risks from lack of access to cooling. Targeted efforts to mitigate these risks include land-use planning changes that prioritize green spaces near favelas, and heat-action planning that provides them with public cooling centres on days when temperatures exceed 35°C.
Shanghai, China
2015: 23,482,000
2019: 26,317,000
Present: 28,309,043
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Source: Climate Change Knowledge Portal, The World Bank Group, 2022 |
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Between 2015 and 2019, Shanghai increased its built-up area by 8.96 square kilometers with a decrease of 0.78 square kilometers of shrubs, 1.32 square kilometers of herbaceous vegetation, 3.48 square kilometers of cultivated and managed vegetation, 0.16 square kilometers of herbaceous wetland, 0.16 square kilometers of open forest with evergreen broad leaf, and 3.38 square kilometers of open forest.
Shanghai has observed the highest increase in its built-up area among the major cities in the Critical 9 countries. The increase contributes to increased demand for air-conditioning and refrigeration systems, highlighting the need for energy-efficient and climate-friendly technologies. Demand can be expected to be particularly high in July and August, where temperatures are projected to exceed 35°C for three days each month.
For its most vulnerable residents, green spaces, passive cooling, and more vegetation can provide relief while reducing the UHIE and minimizing the energy necessary for cooling needs.
Notes and references
[1] Global Land Cover, Copernicus. Land Cover Viewer (vito.be)
[2] Buchhorn, M. ; Lesiv, M. ; Tsendbazar, N. - E. ; Herold, M. ; Bertels, L. ; Smets, B. Copernicus Global Land Cover Layers — Collection 2. Remote Sensing 2020, 12, Volume 108, 1044. DOI 10.3390/rs12061044
[3] Q-GIS software was used, which is a free and open-source cross-platform GIS software application that supports viewing, editing, and analysis of geospatial data. Discover QGIS
[4] RStudio is an Integrated Development Environment (IDE) for R, a programming language for statistical computing and graphics. About RStudio - RStudio
[5] The U.N. Climate report’s five futures – decoded. Explainer: The U.N. climate report's five futures - decoded | Reuters
[6] Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP). About us | Climate Change Knowledge Portal (worldbank.org)
[7] Ürge-Vorsatz, D., Petrichenko, K., Antal, M., Staniec, M., Labelle, M., Ozden, E., Labzina, E. Best-Practice Policies for Low Energy and Carbon Buildings. A Scenario Analysis. Research report prepared by the Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Policy (3CSEP) for the Global Buildings Performance Network. May 2012.
[8] Rural population – Mozambique, The World Bank, 2022. Link.
[9] Mozambique Receives $100 Million for its Maputo Urban Transformation Project, The World Bank, 2020. Link.
[10] Urbanization in contrasting cities, BBC, 2022. Link.
[11] The Hindu, 18 March 2022, Link.
[12] Andrea Zerboni et. al (2021) The Khartoum-Omdurman conurbation: a growing megacity at the confluence of the Blue and White Nile Rivers, Journal of Maps, 17:4, 227-240, DOI: 10.1080/17445647.2020.1758810
Energizing Finance: Taking the Pulse 2021 - Ghana, Mozambique and Vietnam
Research
- Achieving universal Tier 1 electricity and Tier 4 clean cooking access will cost USD 38-48 billion across Ghana, Mozambique and Vietnam; a more incremental pathway of Tier 1 electricity and Tier 2 / Tier 3 clean cooking access will be considerably less costly at USD 2.1 billion
- About USD 1.1 billion will be needed in affordability gap financing across Ghana, Mozambique and Vietnam for Tier 1 electricity and Tier 2 / Tier 3 cooking access.
- Mini-grids will make a relatively small contribution to universal Tier 1 electricity access in the Business-as-Usual scenario.
- Standalone solar solutions will deliver access to all transition households not served by the grid or mini-grids.
About the report
This report updates and extends the biennial Taking the Pulse report, first published in 2017 by Sustainable Energy for All (SEforALL) as part of its Energizing Finance research series.
It seeks to (i) estimate the total volume and type of finance needed by decentralized energy (clean cooking and electricity) enterprises, (ii) estimate unmet finance needs (the affordability gap) for end-use customers, (iii) provide high-level recommendations on the use of funding to unlock private sector capacity and deliver energy access solutions at scale, and (iv) suggest enabling policies and regulations for governments.
Like previous editions, Energizing Finance: Taking the Pulse 2021 relies heavily on an empirically based model to estimate future finance needed in three countries: this year, Ghana, Mozambique and Vietnam, which represent three distinct levels of electricity and clean cooking access and market maturity. The report uses the World Bank’s widely recognized Multi-Tier Framework (MTF) to classify different levels of electricity and clean cooking access for households. For electricity, it measures the gap to achieving universal Tier 1 access; for clean cooking, it estimates the deficit to both universal Tier 2 / Tier 3 levels through industrially manufactured improved cookstoves (ICS) (which rely on traditional biofuels but are cleaner and more efficient than artisanal cookstoves) and Tier 4 modern energy cooking services (MECS) (through liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), ethanol and electricity).
Key findings
Achieving universal Tier 1 electricity and Tier 4 clean cooking access will cost USD 38-48 billion across Ghana, Mozambique and Vietnam. A more incremental pathway of Tier 1 electricity and Tier 2 / Tier 3 clean cooking access will be considerably less costly at USD 2.1 billion. Achieving universal Tier 4 cooking access across all three countries will cost about USD 37-47 billion, depending on the technology used. Achieving universal Tier 1 electricity access by 2030 in Ghana and Mozambique will require about USD 1.1 billion in additional capital.
About USD 1.1 billion will be needed in affordability gap financing across Ghana, Mozambique and Vietnam. Unsurprisingly, given its high poverty levels (46 percent compared with 23 percent in Ghana and 7 percent in Vietnam) (World Bank)), Mozambique will account for the overwhelming share (82 percent) of the need across the three focus countries, mostly to drive standalone solar uptake in poor, rural households. Most of Ghana’s affordability gap financing (92 percent) will be needed in the service of household ICS purchases, with only USD 12 million needed to support standalone solar purchases. Vietnam will require about USD 40 million to support household purchases of ICS solutions.
Mini-grids will make a relatively small contribution to universal Tier 1 electricity access in the Business-as-Usual scenario. They will provide electricity to up to 3 percent of the population in Mozambique and only about 1 percent in Ghana by 2030. High-connection costs (relative to SHSs) combined with a lack of policy and regulatory clarity around licensing, land acquisition, concessions, tariffs, and subsidy schemes, limit private participation in mini-grids.
Standalone solar solutions will deliver access to all transition households not served by the grid or mini-grids. Achieving this will require a substantial increase in public and private financing above current levels, especially in Mozambique.
Recommendations
| COUNTRY | MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS |
| Ghana |
Electricity
Clean cooking
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| Mozambique |
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Vietnam |
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| Cross-cutting |
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This report is part of the series:
Energizing Finance
Energizing Finance 2021 official virtual launch
To help countries close their energy access gaps, we need a clear picture of the finance required. That means understanding how much finance they are already receiving, in what forms, how quickly committed funds get paid and which energy solutions are being financed.
The Energizing Finance research series is recognized as a valuable source of energy finance analysis and advice to policymakers, the finance sector, industry and civil society. It consists of in-depth primary research and analysis by Sustainable Energy for All (SEforALL) and partners.
On 14 October, SEforALL will release two new reports under the series:
Energizing Finance: Understanding the Landscape 2021 tracks finance for electricity and clean cooking committed in 2019 to 20 Sub-Saharan African and Asian countries – known as the high-impact countries (HICs) – that together are home to more than 80 percent of people globally without energy access. This report was developed in partnership with Climate Policy Initiative.
Energizing Finance: Taking the Pulse 2021 presents findings on the estimated volume and type of finance needed by enterprises and customers to achieve universal energy access for both electricity and clean cooking by 2030 in three focus countries: Mozambique, Ghana and Vietnam. This report was developed in partnership with Dalberg Advisors.
Join us as we launch this year’s research. In addition to sharing key findings, the event will feature panellists who will shed light on what is needed to unlock greater finance for energy access in the push to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 7 by 2030.
Watch the event here
EDP supporting local energy access projects across East Africa
Sustainable Energy for All (SEforALL) delivery partner and multinational utility EDP - Energias de Portugal is exemplifying the role the private sector can have in supporting Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7) – affordable and clean energy for all by 2030.
EDP’s first edition of the Access to Energy Fund was launched last fall, with 450,000 Euros earmarked for promoting access to energy in remote areas without access to the electricity grid.
Now, EDP has announced that this money will be allocated to six sustainable and clean energy projects across East Africa, notably in Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique and Malawi.
According to the 2018 Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report report, 600 million people across Africa do not have any electricity, with millions more having only intermittent access to power. The consequences of these access gaps are far-reaching, limiting opportunities for quality education and health care.
"Access to energy has the potential to play a revolutionary role in emerging countries, being an essential tool for a society to foster opportunities and equality", António Mexia, president of EDP, explained in announcing the Access to Energy Fund’s recipients.
Building partnerships across the spectrum of stakeholders is at the heart of all that SEforALL does to 'change the game' on sustainable energy and accelerate the pace of progress towards SDG7. This includes supporting private sector partners, like EDP, in developing innovative solutions that close energy access gaps.
EDP’s Access to Energy Fund places the company’s financial support behind a series of initiatives that will impact upwards of 55,000 people, of whom ten thousand will be impacted directly. Co-operative Bank Foundation, SAVIC Africa, UN-Habitat, Girl MOVE, Energía Sin Fronteras Foundation and Sustainable Investments and Development Initiatives were selected from a list of 108 entities who applied for the first edition of the fund.
In Kenya, Co-operative Bank Foundation will install solar greenhouses to power irrigation systems in 12 schools to ensure that there will be adequate supply of food throughout the year while providing energy access for 6,000 people. Meanwhile, SAVIC Africa's OKAPI Green Energy project will build a 12 kWp photovoltaic mini-grid at Kakuma Refugee Camp with smart metering technology to provide electricity to 150 homes and 50 business clients.
In Mozambique, the Girl MOVE Academy's "Energy for a Better Future" program will create a 30 kWp solar energy plant for an ECOCampus and IT center for training a new generation of female leaders. UN-Habitat will build solar energy systems to supply 12 classrooms at two schools affected by natural disasters. In addition to promoting access to education for 1,300 people, the initiative also covers the installation of emergency alert systems, internet access and charging stations, which could generate revenue for schools.
Energía Sin Fronteras Foundation will offer 25.9kWp photovoltaic panels to provide electricity at St. Mary's Rehabilitation Center in Malawi so that it will be able to provide 24-hour medical care and clean water to patients.
The Sustainable Investments and Development Initiatives (SIDI) will also allow 1,500 fishermen and commercial and public facilities to access energy through a 10 kWp photovoltaic mini-grid that will enable the generation, storage and distribution of power to a remote island in Tanzania.
These recipients were selected according to criteria such as social impact, partnerships, sustainability, potential for expansion and number of beneficiaries, work in the areas of education, health, water and agriculture, business and community. Each one received financial support ranging from 25,000 to 100,000 Euros based on their commitment to implement their projects by the beginning of next year.
Read more about the selected initiatives.
*EDP President António Mexia is the Chair of the Administrative Board of Sustainable Energy for All
EDP launches clean energy access fund for developing countries
Energies de Portugal (EDP), a Sustainable Energy for All Delivery Partner, has announced the launch of an energy access fund that will allocate about €500,000 annually to promote renewable energy projects in developing countries.
The application process for the inaugural program is open from October 22 to November 25, 2018.
The fund invites organizations from around the world, both profit and non-profit, to help develop projects in Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique and Malawi. The selection of these four countries reflects the Group’s strategy this year to prioritize investments in East Africa due to the region’s greater political stability and dynamic economic development.
The initiative is part of EDP’s announcement in May that it would provide €12 million under its long-standing access to energy (A2E) program over the next three years to promote universal access to sustainable energy in developing countries, with 200,000 people expected to benefit.
“Access to energy must be a concern and priority for all of us. As part of our energy access strategy, which aims to benefit more than 200,000 people over the next three years, we have launched an investment fund for renewable solution projects with a relevant impact in developing countries,” said EDP Group CEO António Mexia, who is also Chair of the Administrative Board of Sustainable Energy for All.
The A2E CSR Fund Program will focus on five areas in which energy plays a crucial role: education, health, water and agriculture, income generation and community projects. The projects will be selected according to criteria such as social impact, partnerships, sustainability, scalability, and the number of beneficiaries.
Funding for each project will range between €25,000 and €100,000, with the fund covering up to 75% of total project costs for non-profit entities and up to 50% of total project costs for for-profit entities.
The project selection process will be concluded on December 21, 2018. The allocation of the funds will be formalized in January and all the projects must be implemented during 2019.
EDP is committed to contributing to the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals to help transform the way energy is produced, distributed and consumed. Access to energy is a necessary condition to break the poverty cycle and allow the social and economic development of remote rural areas.
Lisbon-based EDP is the world’s third largest electricity production company, providing electricity to 10 million customers in 14 countries on four continents, with almost 70% of its energy produced from renewable resources.
More information, including regulations and application forms, are available here.
Photo credit: EDP